Gold & commodities — August 2026

GOLD HITS 2-MONTH HIGH AS FED RATE HIKE EXPECTATIONS EASE

• 🟡 Gold surged above $4,350/oz, reaching its highest level in two months

• 🇺🇸 Weak US jobs data, softer wage growth and lower labour force participation reduced expectations of a Fed rate hike this year

• 📉 Falling Treasury yields boosted gold by lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets

• 🛢️ Softer energy prices also supported sentiment, despite continued uncertainty over Iran-US negotiations

• 🇨🇳 Chinese institutional investors increased allocations to gold-backed assets, while central bank buying and physical demand remained supportive

🟢 Impact: Positive for gold prices and gold-related stocks, as easing rate expectations and lower bond yields continue to support bullion.

АШТОСЛУЧИЛОСЬ?

Нарастающая статистика блокады временно оккупированных портов Новороссии, точнее, попыток прорыва блокады западными сухогрузами весьма удивляет:

То отчаянное упорство, с которым Запад запихивает сухогрузы в черноморскую kill zone, ярче яркого показывает, насколько гигантский поток вооружений шёл на территорию бывшей Украины морем.

И насколько абсолютно подлой и предательской была позиция коллективного Юга, наших братушек, всех этих Китаев, Индий и прочих «социалистов-коммунистов», выкручивавших руки России в стремлении не допустить выполнения русских условий зерновой сделки.

31 сухогруз за неделю на фоне предыдущих ударов это очень много. Это слишком много для мирных грузов. Ни один зернотрейдер, ни один торговец удобрениями или чем-то ещё из commodities не станет так рисковать теплоходом — только если груз настолько срочный и драгоценный, что стоимость теплохода незначительна по сравнению с риском.

Вы помните, как Запад, особенно Великобритания праздновали разгром Черноморского флота и тотальную победу над русскими на Черном море? Не помните? Ну, конечно, наша взвейся-развейся пропаганда это не сообщала. Но, поверьте, они ЛИКОВАЛИ.

Так вот. Всего третья неделя надлежащей прополки Чёрного моря, и... Какой же мы можем сделать вывод?

Оказалось, что у Запада НЕТ варианта Б. Они с упорством взбесившихся свиней продолжают бросать и бросать сухогрузы на помощь бывшей Украине.

И эта паническая долбёжка поражает: они действительно не верили, что русские посмеют бить по сухогрузам.

Потрясающие интеллектуалы.

И, конечно, возникают тихие вопросы: а почему они были так уверены, что русские не посмеют бить по кораблям? Кто их в этом убедил? Сами? Или кто-то ещё? А кто?

В удивительные времена живём, дамы и господа.

И ещё.

Вы помните, как в доисторическую эпоху, то есть несколько месяцев назад, наши леваки хором орали, что единственный выход для России это лечь под Глобальный Юг? А сейчас они, вместе с глобальным югом, словно мочи в рот набрали и нигугушеньки не говорят о морской блокаде против фашистов.

Аштослучилось?

https://t.me/mod_russia/66336

📈 TradFi Top 5 Gainers | Aug 7

🥇 $MINIMAX +20.02% 🥈 $FLNC +19.17% 🥉 $TWLO +16.07% ⭐ $ZHIPU +15.06% ⭐ $AXTI +11.25%

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📊 Market Pulse

Opening Signal: GIFT Nifty –76 pts at 24,663 → Negative start (Global mixed: US Dow –0.85%, S&P 500 –0.18%, Nasdaq –0.06%; Asia Kosdaq –2.41%, Kospi –1.07%, Topix +0.12%, Nikkei 225 –0.95%; Hang Seng, S&P/ASX 200 flat)

🪙Commodities & Forex: • Crude $78.08 (+1.02%) • Brent Oil $83.48 (+1.20%) • Gold $4,305.97 (+0.15%) • Silver $62.19 (+0.94%) • Copper $6.74 (+0.40%) • Gas $2.63 (–0.23%) • USD/INR 95.39

💰 Flows: • FII: –₹17.86 Cr • DII: +₹4,013.60 Cr

➡️ IPO's Open: • LEAP India (Mainboard) • Optimystix Entertainment (SME) • Technocraft Ventures (Mainboard) • LAPL Automotive (SME) • Ardee Industries (Mainboard)

⚡️ Highlights: • Oil surges as Iran targets Strait of Hormuz amid lingering US-Iran peace deal uncertainty.

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📊 Market Pulse

Opening Signal: GIFT Nifty +73 pts at 24,721 → Positive start (Global mixed: US Dow +0.49%, S&P 500 –0.17%, Nasdaq –0.83%; Asia Kospi –4.02%, Nikkei –1.01%, Hang Seng –1.72%, ASX 200 +0.42%, Kosdaq +0.34%, Topix –0.37%)

🪙Commodities & Forex: • Crude $75.54 (+0.43%) • Brent Oil $79.88 (+0.54%) • Gold $4,340.70 (+0.82%) • Silver $62.570 (+0.45%) • Copper $6.74 (–0.16%) • Gas $2.68 (+0.22%) • USD/INR 95.04

💰 Flows: • FII: –₹943.42 Cr • DII: +₹2,883.17 Cr

➡️ IPO's Open: • LAPL Automotive (SME) • Ardee Industries (Mainboard) • Aegeus Technologies (SME)

⚡️ Highlights: • Gold hits 7-week high on lower dollar and Treasury yields amid Strait of Hormuz reopening progress.

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Morning Alert! 🌅

*Closing price auction aftermath: NSE-BSE price gaps fuel arbitrage trades* 📉📈 Unusual stock price movements at the National Stock Exchange (NSE) over the past three trading sessions, since the rollout of the closing auction session, have created a price arbitrage and low-risk profit opportunity for high-frequency, high-volume traders between the NSE and the BSE. 💰 Many largecap index stocks have moved at a different pace on the two exchanges during this period. While some stocks have risen more on the NSE than on the BSE, others have posted larger gains on the BSE. Similarly, several index stocks have recorded steeper declines on the NSE than on the BSE. This has created opportunities for day traders to buy a stock at a relatively lower price on one exchange and simultaneously sell it at a higher price on the other, pocketing the spread. 🤑 Bajaj Auto, for example, closed at ₹11,800 per share on the NSE on Wednesday, 1.01 per cent higher than its closing price of ₹11,681.5 on the BSE. On Monday, this stock had closed 3 per cent higher on the NSE than on the BSE, with the difference narrowing to 0.43 per cent on Tuesday. In comparison, it had closed at ₹11,520.5 per share on the NSE last Friday, just 0.01 per cent higher than its closing price of ₹11,519.5 on the BSE.

*Global market action* 🌍 Dow Jones – Up by 0.14% or 78.17 points ⬆️ FTSE – Up by 0.08% or 8.92 points ⬆️ CAC – Up by 0.03% or 2.67 points ⬆️ DAX – Down by 0.29% or 76.05 points ⬇️ Gift Nifty – Up by 0.13% or 32.50 points ⬆️

*FII/DII activities* 🏦 FII – Sold 943.42Cr worth of shares 💸 DII – Bought 2883.17Cr worth of shares 💰

*Major Indian Indices PE* 📊 Nifty 50 – 20.9x Nifty Bank – 13.7x

*Primary market activities* 📝 UTI AMC Ltd – 85.2%

*Primary market activities* 🆕 IPO opening today LAPL Automotive Ltd (BSE SME) – Issue size 30.77Cr

Listing today 📅 Juniper Green Energy Ltd (Main board) – Subscribed 8.38x Oneindig Technologies Ltd (BSE SME) – Subscribed 1.73x MV Electrosystems Ltd (Main board) – Subscribed 200.66x Dhaval Packaging Ltd (BSE SME) – Subscribed 35.52x

*Commodities updates* 💎🛢️ Gold – Rs 148650/10gm, Silver – Rs 227590/kg, Brcrude – Rs 7125/barrel, Copper – Rs 1374/kg.

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⛏ ЮГК: эпопея завершается. Заработают ли инвесторы?

Южуралзолото наконец приватизировали. Посмотрим, чем закончилась история, и смогли ли заработать на ней инвесторы.

❓ Как это было

Вспомним, с чего все началось.

• 2–3 июля 2025 — Генпрокуратура подала иск об обращении активов Константина Струкова (владельца ЮГК) и связанных лиц в доход государства. Основание: незаконный контроль над компанией с использованием статуса депутата заксобрания Челябинской области.

• 11 июля 2025 — Советский районный суд Челябинска удовлетворил иск. Активы обращены в доход государства.

• 15 июля 2025 — 67,25 % акций ПАО «ЮГК» официально перешли Росимуществу.

• Май 2026 — несколько неудачных аукционов по продаже пакета. Стартовая оценка 162 млрд руб.

• 19 Июня 2026 — с четвёртой попытки 67,2 % акций ЮГК и связанные активы проданы за 93,2 млрд руб. компании «БТС-Мост Холдинг». Скидка к стартовой цене составила около 42 %. Вскоре ЮГК будет переименована в «ГК БТС-Золото».

📈 Что с акциями

На момент начала приватизации акции ЮГК стоили около 0,67 руб. С конца 2025 по начало 2026 года на фоне роста цен на золото акции компании, как и остальных золотодобытчиков, выросли более чем на 80% до 0,87 руб. Затем началась коррекция, и на минимумах бумаги опускались до 0,54 руб.

После успешной приватизации акции вновь выросли. 31 июля новый акционер направил в Банк России параметры обязательного предложения о выкупе акций остальным акционерам. На этом акции ЮГК стрельнули на 7%, до 0,65 руб.

Цена выкупа и сроки пока неизвестны. По закону цена оферты не может быть ниже средневзвешенной цены акций за установленный период. По оценкам, это где-то 0,72 руб. за акцию, то есть на 10% выше текущих уровней и на 7,5% выше уровней начала приватизации.

Теперь оферту должен одобрить ЦБ. После одобрения компания выставит ее и озвучит параметры. Если вы хотите поспекулировать на этом, помните, что ЦБ может и не одобрить оферту (как было с ПИК), и тогда акции в моменте могут упасть, а вы понесете убытки.

#Горячее @IF_Stocks

📊 Bitget UEX Daily | August 5, 2026

Market Snapshot • Total crypto cap: $2.28T • BTC: $63,985 (+0.91%) | ETH: $1,863 (+0.65%) • Stocks: Dow +1.71% (54,085.88) | S&P 500 +1.79% (7,736.52) | Nasdaq +2.59% (26,584.99) • Commodities: Gold $4,081/oz (+0.1%) | WTI $75.39/bbl (-0.51%) | DXY 99.85

📈 Key Levels • BTC Liquidation Map: – Above current price (~$63,985), the $64,500–$65,500 zone holds dense short liquidations (a breakout could trigger further short-covering) – Below ($62,000–$63,500): Larger long-liquidation pressure remains; price is in a high-liquidation-density zone with elevated short-term volatility risk

🔥 Hotspots Geopolitical: US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated a Strait of Hormuz deal is imminent (possibly on August 4 or 5). Iran has softened its stance, dropping full control of two-way shipping and proposing to manage inbound vessels while retaining oversight of outbound traffic, and considering European participation in mine-clearing. Negotiations have progressed, and de-escalation expectations continue to compress the crude risk premium. Federal Reserve: September rate-hike probability fell to 58.4%, with the probability of holding steady rising to 41.6%. Recent sharp declines in oil prices have helped ease inflation concerns, though employment data remains the key pricing anchor. Tech/AI: Palantir significantly beat expectations (revenue $1.94B, adjusted EPS $0.41) and surged nearly 30%, reinforcing the AI software monetization narrative. Semiconductor and memory stocks were strong (Intel +11%, Micron +8%, SanDisk +11%), while optical communications rebounded (Applied Optoelectronics +19%, Coherent +12%). Circle, SanDisk and Western Digital earnings are due. The White House is advancing its voluntary AI safety-testing framework (open-source models excluded).

🏛 Institutional Views • Institutions see Bessent’s “Hormuz deal imminent” comments continuing to compress the crude risk premium, easing inflation concerns and supporting risk assets. Record highs in the Dow and S&P 500 reflect the resonance of geopolitical de-escalation and earnings delivery. • Palantir’s strong beat reinforced AI-software monetization, while semiconductor and memory sentiment recovered. Crypto stabilized with ETF flows turning to net inflows. • Consensus: Geopolitical de-escalation and AI earnings delivery are the current main themes; closely monitor deal implementation and upcoming non-farm payrolls data.

🔗 Source: https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560605609634

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🌉 Central banks are buying gold aggressively again

↗️ In the second quarter, global central banks added 289 tonnes of gold to their reserves — the strongest quarterly increase since late 2024. Poland emerged as the largest buyer, continuing to strengthen its gold holdings.

Traders, what is your gold price target? Share your forecast in the comments!

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🗞 Weekly Market Rewind Edition 28 | Week 31: July 27 – July 31, 2026 Here’s a quick snapshot of what moved markets last week, the strongest weekly rally since April, powered by robust domestic data, rupee recovery, and renewed buying in IT stocks:

📉 Market action • Nifty 50 surged 2.59%, Sensex gained 2.68%, while Bank Nifty rose 1.01% • Broader markets joined the rally, Midcaps +2.10%, Smallcaps +2.46% • Benchmarks also gained around 2.17% during July, supported by earnings resilience and returning foreign inflows

🌍 Global triggers • Fed held rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% for the fifth consecutive meeting • U.S.–Iran tensions widened, with fresh regional attacks keeping geopolitical risks elevated • Brent crude remained volatile amid supply concerns and Middle East uncertainty • Strong Big Tech earnings supported U.S. markets despite heavy AI-related spending • U.S. GDP growth slowed to 1.5% in Q2, below market expectations

💱 Currency & commodities • Rupee strengthened 1.21% to around ₹95.38/USD after aggressive RBI dollar sales • RBI reportedly sold $8–9 billion, helping the currency recover to a two-week high • Brent crude gained 1.53%, while WTI declined 3.30% during the week • Gold fell 1.49% and Silver declined 2.40% as risk appetite improved • Copper advanced 1.70%, reflecting stronger industrial sentiment

📊 Sector moves • Nifty IT surged 6.75% — the strongest sectoral performance of the week • TCS, Infosys, HCL Technologies, and Tech Mahindra gained on healthy earnings and improving demand commentary • Nifty Energy slipped 0.24% amid profit booking and softer crude prices • FIIs returned as net buyers with ₹5,949 crore of cash-market inflows • DIIs remained supportive, purchasing ₹5,387 crore during the week

✅ Bright spots amid the rally • India’s industrial production surged 7.3% in June, the strongest growth in 23 months • Manufacturing expanded 7.8%, while electricity output jumped 10.6% • RBI intervention helped stabilise the rupee and ease currency volatility • Foreign investor flows turned positive after four consecutive months of outflows • Strong Q1FY27 corporate earnings reinforced confidence in India’s growth outlook

📊 F&O cues • Nifty support remained firm near 24,000, with fresh Put addition around 24,400 • Resistance was seen in the 24,500–24,600 zone • Bank Nifty support remained around 57,000–58,000, while resistance was concentrated near 58,000

🔎 What to watch next Markets will closely track the RBI interest rate decision, India’s Manufacturing and Services PMI data, U.S. payrolls, wage growth, and global crude oil developments. Major earnings from SBI, Bharti Airtel, Titan, Trent, Hero MotoCorp, and Hindalco will also drive stock-specific action.

🔗 Read the full wrap here: https://weeklymarketrewind.substack.com/p/weekly-market-rewind-july-27-aug-1-2026